(The things they tell us about Africa)
Do they ever come to pass? Would they ever come to pass?
Statisticians, data scientists, and big data evaluators love to play numbers games. These guys put out predictions or forecasts and back them up by saying numbers don’t lie. Truth be told data doesn’t lie and I agree.
On the flip side, the information the paperwork merchants sell to us in this part of the world makes me ask myself one daunting question. Are these projections actually achievable or just a false hope campaign to massage our ego?
I also begin to ponder what is the basis or key points upon which those numbers are derived. Is it just bare predictions from hypothetical mathematical models? Even if they were, do these models make predictions with constraints, or do they align with the notion that presumes, all things are equal?
Then I ask again, even in life how can all things be equal? We were told it couldn’t be because friction exists. So when those valuations and predictions are thrown up, do those models actually capture the inconsistencies that could occur during the time estimate of the projections? If they don’t, why then do we believe those predictions when in a practical scenario there stands to be some sort of unexplained abrasions that could pop up.
Well, just for context, all this hullabaloo in my head emanated from the paperwork I stumbled across that reads “Nigeria is predicated to be the 5th largest economy in the world by 2075 and France would be 15th“. (The almighty French would be 15th?😮).
Well, not like I don’t believe in the green white green, but as a mere mortal that I am, I ask how is this supposed to happen? Then they show more paperwork to back up this bold claim by stating that the “Nigerian economy is expected to grow by $13.1 trillion by same 2075“. (If only you know the miracle that needs to occur for this to be feasible, you would smile😂)
Not to lie those stats are impressive but I ask again, were those predictions made taking into consideration the challenges in the Nigerian system? If it wasn’t, why are we building our hope against it? I think I would have to refer to historical data to check if any prediction made for Nigeria has ever come true. To understand the future you must first understand the past.
Another school of thought is, if those projections tend to hold true in other climates, why do they tend to falter when it reaches Nigeria’s turn? Is Nigeria a different breed that no mathematical model seems to be able to understand and predict correctly?
Well, I think there’s one way for me to find out. By the presumed 2075, I will be 77 years and I pray God grants me a good health to be active till then. By that time, it’s either Nigeria becomes the 5th largest economy in the world or I would be in a better position to address the paperwork merchants on how to make predictions when it comes to matters concerning the green white green😀.
For now, the best I can do is to painstakingly contribute my quota towards achieving those beautiful projections and that’s what I hope you do also. So at least by 2075 God willing, you and I would not be the reason why the projections don’t become reality.
So till then, my fellow enterprising Nigerian let us continue to do our best to build the bright future that our forefathers, optimistic mathematical models, and God have assured us of. We can only hope for nothing but the best.
God bless the Green White Green.
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